This is not the offseason to make predictions. As Buster Olney and Jeff Passan have already outlined, due to the financial conditions in the sport due to the shortened season with no fans in the stands — and the uncertainty of what will happen in 2021 — there will be big rollbacks in payrolls. Former Rockies general manager Dan O’Dowd said on MLB Network that he expects two-thirds of teams not to be spending in free agency.
We’ve already seen the cutbacks begin, with quality players like Charlie Morton, Brad Hand and Kolten Wong (among others) not getting reasonable team options exercised for 2021, instead becoming free agents. The deadline for offering 2021 contracts is Dec. 2, and the expectation is that some interesting names will be non-tendered, sending those players into free agency as well. It means a free-agent market that will be flooded with players, with teams not wanting to spend, and thus signings and movement will happen very slowly — with player salaries ultimately taking a nosedive. All this will also affect the trade market.
It also means that teams can find potential bargains out there if they want to, if they’re willing to spend just a little to fill out their rosters and plug some holes. What will happen? Here’s where we get bold and have some fun speculating on what might happen. We’ll make predictions for all 30 teams, find a home for most of Kiley McDaniel’s top 50 or so free agents and even take a run at a few trades. Then check back in late March.
The teams are listed by division, in order of their 2020 finish, starting with the world champion Los Angeles Dodgers.
Jump to a team:
American League
BAL | BOS | CHW | CLE | DET | HOU | KAN | LAA | MIN | NYY | OAK | SEA | TB | TEX | TOR
National League
ARI | ATL | CHC | CIN | COL | LAD | MIA | MIL | NYM | PHI | PIT | SD | SF | STL | WSH
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers
What they could do: Sign Trevor Bauer, trade for Francisco Lindor (moving Corey Seager to third base) and go for 120 wins.
What we predict they will do: Re-sign Justin Turner and Joc Pederson.
The Dodgers have several worthy free agents to consider bringing back, and while I think they’ll ultimately let Blake Treinen and Kiké Hernandez walk, the depressed free-agent market should allow them to re-sign Turner and Pederson. In Hernandez’s case, the Dodgers have to open second base for Gavin Lux, and Chris Taylor can fill the utility role. Pederson is one season removed from hitting 36 home runs, and his big postseason is a reminder that having a power left-handed platoon bat around is valuable for depth and in-game maneuvering.
San Diego Padres
What they could do: The lineup is set, so add some pitching depth.
What we predict they will do: Sign Trevor Bauer and Kiké Hernandez.
Why stop at 50? We ranked every free agent available in the 2020 offseason market.
MLB free-agent rankings
Complete MLB offseason coverage »
If the postseason taught the Padres anything, it taught them this: The Dodgers are still…
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